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<br />Enrollment trends <br /> <br />Resident student enrollment is declining in Mounds View Public <br />Schools. \^lhile the District's projection techniques have been <br />accurate in forecasting enrollment for upcoming school years, <br />these techniques are not appropriate for forecasting longer -range <br />trends. In order to gain a better projection of District-level student <br />enrollments for the next 10 years, a professional demographer <br />service - Hazel Reinhardt Consulting Services ~ was contracted. <br />The report suggests that by 2014. K-12 enrollment could dlp to <br />8,250 students or less. <br /> <br />Mounds View experiences a net loss of students. <br /> <br />Over the past 10 years, more resident students have enrolled in <br />schools outside of our district than non-resident students who <br />have enrolled in our schools. This year we experienced a net loss <br />of 172 students. <br /> <br />. 2003 Enrollment <br /> <br /> <br />Students OUT <br /> <br />504 <br /> <br />Net Joss of students <br /> <br />l___--..l. <br /> <br />-600 -500 400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 <br /> <br />Source- October 1, 2003, District enrollment report <br /> <br />Non-resident enrollment has grown slowly. <br /> <br />Mounds VIew is accepting a slightly growing number of <br />non-resident students. <br /> <br />1995 <br />1.5% Non.residents I <br /> <br />2003 <br />3% Non-residents I <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Source: Mounds View Public Schools enrollment r"'rarts <br /> <br /> <br />Mounds View <br /> <br />PUBLIC SCHOOLS <br /> <br />Competition is increasing. <br /> <br />An increasing number of resident students are enrolling in <br />non-public schools. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Where do resident students enroll? <br />100 <br /> <br />84% <br />11,563 <br /> <br /> <br />1995 <br /> <br />80 <br /> <br />. 2003 <br /> <br />60 <br /> <br />40 <br /> <br />20 <br /> <br />4% <br /> <br />1% 2% <br />159 211 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />Mounds View Non-public other <br />Public Schools schools public schools <br /> <br />Home <br />school <br /> <br />~ The results posted in 2003 represent a fairly typical capture rate for an inl1er ring <br />suburban schc..ol district. (Hazel Reinhardt Consulting Services, December 2003) <br /> <br />Source: Mounds View Public Schools enrollment reports <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Enrollment will continue to decline rapidly. <br /> <br />Enrollment is expected to decline faster in the next 10 years <br />than in the previolls 10 years. <br /> <br />10,500 <br /> <br />1Q,316 <br /> <br />10,000 <br /> <br />10,006 <br /> <br />9,757 <br /> <br />9,500 <br /> <br />9,~_48_ <br /> <br />9,263 <br /> <br />Estimaledtotal <br />decline'" 2,070 <br /> <br />9,000 <br /> <br />8,992 <br /> <br />8.500 <br /> <br />8,800 <br />8,6228,501 <br />- 8-"41"6-- <br />, 8,300 <br />8,246 <br /> <br />8000 L_.---l <br />, 2003 '04 'O~) <br />(actual) <br /> <br />, ----'- <br /> <br />'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '1-4 <br /> <br />Thesr projections consider: <br /> <br />Minnesota State Demographer's projection of Ramsey County <br />5-year-olds, The number of 5-year-olds is projected to decrease <br />bet\veen 2000 and 20]0 and then begin to increase after 201. <br /> <br />An "aver;:tge" rate of net out migration from District schools. <br /> <br />ProFcted housing unit growth, based on the number of existing <br />and projected housing units and applying a child pef household <br />estimate to the housing unit COUllt. <br /> <br />Source: Hazel R€lrlhsrdt Consulting Services, Oecember 2003 <br />