01-22-07 Item 2B, Five Year CIP Update

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2006 PMP Update 1/18/2007 Page 4 Scenario 4 shows the effect of the existing 5-year ClP on the average PCl values. The results of this scenario indicate that the average PCI values would be 65 after the five year period, an increase of one point from today's average PCL While this scenario is only a five year model, it could be expected that if this model were extended, results would be similar to those described in Scenario 2. The graphs supplementing this report compare the average PCls and budgets for Scenarios I, 2 and 3 over the 20 year period. Staff Observations: . The results indicate that if the City were to select a management plan based on maintaining a benchmark PCI, the difference between maintaining the current PCI of 64 (Scenario 2) and increasing the PCI to 75 (Scenario 3) is only $1.5 million over a 20 year period. . The results of Scenario I and Scenario 3 are similar in that at the end of the 20 year period for a new average PCI (77 to 75, respectively). In Scenario], a consistent amount of money is spent each year (approximately $1 million). However, in Scenario 3, more money would be spent up front, in the first six years, and then spending would level off at a lower annual amount, In Phase I (2006-2011) average spending would be approximately $].5 million, and Phase 2 (2012-2025) would decrease and level off to just over $500,000 per year. CONCLUSION The scenarios completed by Goodpointe show the relationship between average pel and funding levels. Staff is requesting that the Council review the scenarios and discuss how to move forward with our pavement management program. Items to consider: . Does the Council want to proceed with the current program (Scenario 4) and level of funding? . Would the Council like to pursue one of the other scenarios (Scenario], 2 or 3)? . Would the Council like to evaluate other budget scenarios? Feedback received at the work session will be incorporated into our continuing evaluation and revisions to the5- Year CIP, and will be presented at a future work session.