01-22-07 Item 2B, Five Year CIP Update

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2006 PMP Update 1118/2007 Page 3 GoodPointe Analysis GoodPointe Technology utilized the current pavement condition index (PCI) information as well our historical data of street improvement projects to perform pavement management analysis of the street system in Arden Hills. The budget analysis is based on current construction costs and factors in an inflation rate of3%. Engineering costs, 20% of the estimated construction cost, have been incorporated into the unit costs. It should be noted, however, that the analysis is only an estimate, and does not include any utility (watermain, sanitary sewer or storm sewer) construction costs, easement acquisition costs, or trail/sidewalk construction costs. Also not included are additional costs that may be incurred for retaining walls, excessive driveway replacement, right-of-way reestablishment or other costs for areas that may have extreme situations such as significant grade changes. The reason for this is that these costs vary from project to project and there is no reliable way to estimate them. The maintenance strjltegy used by GoodPoin]S:!<:r this analysis is based on categorizing the PCI ratings into adequat~IOO), marginal (31~, and poor (0-30). Streets that are adequate receive seal coats, marginal streets receive a mill and overlay, and poor streets are reconstructed. The type of mill and overlay used in the analysis is a 2" mill over the entire pavement section. Streets that have PCI values bordering two categories would be individually evaluated to ensure that the most cost-effective maintenance will occur for the condition of the street. A city street map has been included in this report with the existing PCI ratings color coded to the above mentioned categories. Staff asked GoodPointe to evaluate the following four budget scenarios: Scenario 1 is budget driven, designed to project the average pavement condition if$l million is spent each year on street improvements for the next 20 years. The existing 5-year ClP has been incorporated into the first five years of this model. Over the 20 year period, the average PCI would increase from 64 to 77. Scenario 2 is designed based on the current average PCl (64) and project the level of funding needed to maintain this over the next 20 years. In a budget model that is driven by a benclunark PCI, predetermined projects cannot be entered. The streets are selected by the program for maintenance on a needs basis. The results of this scenario indicate that approximately $] 4.5 million will need to be budgeted for pavement management over the next 20 years. Scenario 3 is based on the desire to increase the average PCI to 75 and determine the level of funding needed to achieve this over the next 20 years. A PCI value of75 is an average benchmark among several other cities in the metro area. Again, this model does not allow for predetermined projects, and the program has selected streets on a needs basis. The results of this scenario indicate that approximately $]6 million will need to be budgeted for pavement management over the next 20 years.