01-22-08 1B Market Study - Laserfiche WebLink

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Arden Hills The TCAAP site is located in Arden Hills, Minnesota. Arden Hills is a suburban community of approximately 10,000 people centrally located in the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities Metro Area in Ramsey County. Arden Hills is located approximately 10 miles from both downtown SI. Paul and Minneapolis. TCAAP Site / Proposed Development The entire property referred to as TCAAP makes up the northern third ofthe City's land base. It is located north of Highway 96, northeast of Highway 10, east ofl-35W, south of County Road I and west of Lexington A venue. The 585 acres of excess property on the western side of TCAAP would be converted to private and local civic ownership. The Ryan Companies proposed TCAAP development plan ("Option B," which is under consideration by the City of Arden Hills), would accommodate: 430 senior units, 39lcondo units, 140 apartment rentals, 469 townhomes and 320 single-family homes for a total of 1,750 units. The housing is anticipated to be phased in over a 12 year period. The TCAAP site is an excellent location for housing and represents a unique development oppor- tunity. It has great highway access to jobs, shopping, and entertainment in the surrounding Me- tro Area. Those looking for newer housing in the area and those residents wishing to downsize currently have few housing options in Arden Hills and surrounding communities. Demoeraphic Trends / Characteristics The primary draw area for housing on the TCAAP site is Arden Hills and surrounding suburbs in the north central area of the Twin Cities (see map on Page 13). The Market Area's population was about 289,000 in 2000 and is projected to grow to 331,000 in 2010 and 355,000 in 2020. The greatest growth is projected to occur in Blaine and Lino Lakes, growing suburbs to the north that have ample supplies of vacant land to accommodate new housing. Arden Hills and most suburbs to the south are nearly fully developed. Much ofthe Arden Hills' future growth is de- pendent on the TCAAP development, since it represents the single largest amount of land availa- ble to accommodate new housing. The baby boom generation will have the biggest effect on the housing market in the Arden Hills Market Area as they continue to age. Baby boomers are currently 44 to 62, and as they age over this decade, they will increase the population in the age groups 45-54 and 55-64. Some of these baby boomers will prefer more expensive single-family homes, while other may prefer to down- size or find maintenance-free alternatives. Overall, we find that demographic trends will gener- ate demand for more diverse housing products over the next 20 years, including for-sale town- homes, rental housing, and senior housing. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 2