01-22-08 1B Market Study - Laserfiche WebLink

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Employment Trends I Characteristics Employment growth generally fuels household growth. And, since people generally prefer to live near work for convenience, the presence of several local firms, such as Land 0' Lakes, Med- tronic, Deluxe Corporation, Celestica, and Boston Scientific, will create demand for new housing on the TCAAP site. Additionally, excellent highway access to neighboring communities, as well as to both downtowns, will make the TCAAP site an appealing housing location for workers in the surrounding area. For-Sale Housill!! Market Conditions Currently, the for-sale housing market in the Metro Area has retreated after several record break- ing years in terms of the number of new home construction and rising resale values. This is evi- denced by the average resale price of a single-family home in Arden Hills, which rose from $280,778 in 2002 to $376,200 in 2006 and then fell to $327,333 in 2007. While few developers are looking at new projects at the current time (most have an inventory of new homes that need to be sold before construction will resume), most predicted the market would return in 20 I 0, or about the time the TCAAP would be ready for development. Overall, the market research indicates that Arden Hills' location lends itself well to single-family homes and townhomes, and especially to an 'empty nester' product, such as single-level townhomes. However, mid-rise condo units will probably not be back for the foreseeable future. Rental Honsinl! Market Conditions Metrowide, the rental housing market has rebounded after several years of high vacancy rates and limited rent growth. In the Arden Hills Market Area the vacancy rate among surveyed de- velopments was 4.3%, while it was 2.4% among newer buildings located just outside the Market Area. Managers and owners of rental housing in the area indicated that there should be a high demand for newer market rate rental units in Arden Hills. Arden Hills has only one market rate building, which was constructed in 1987. Few new buildings have been added in surrounding communi- ties to meet demand generated from local employment growth. Senior Honsinl! Market Conditions Several senior housing developments have been developed in the Arden Hills area in recent years and they are performing well. Demand has been increasing because of strong growth in the se- nior population combined with diversification of senior housing types available and an increas- ing percentage of seniors who want to move into senior housing. In the primary draw area for senior housing in Arden Hills (see map on Page 63), the 65+ population increased from 10,800 in 1990 to 14,600 in 2000 and is projected to increase to 18,300 in 2010 and 26,750 in 2020. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 3