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<br />$153,000 to purchase a $535,000 home (although many executive home buyers will have <br />substantial equity in an existing home, allowing them to make a large down payment). <br /> <br /> <br />CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Based on recent home building trends and demographic changes, we project that 55% of <br />the for-sale demand will be for single-family homes (over 8,100 homes), and the remain- <br />ing demand will be for multifamily units (about 6,700 units). <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Multifamily homes will accommodate the demand generated from modest-income buyers <br />(including first-time buyers), as well as higher-income buyers seeking to downsize from <br />existing single-family homes. We project that 70% ofthe multifamily demand will be <br />from buyers seeking modestly priced units (<$250,000) and 30% will be for move-up <br />homes ($250,000+). <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Since there are no other major housing developments in Arden Hills, all of this demand <br />would be accommodated by the TCAAP site. In total, demand is calculated on the <br />TCAAP site for 1,470 for-sale units from 2008 to 2020. <br /> <br />TABLE 29 <br />DEMAND FOR NEW FOR-SALE HOUSING UNITS <br />ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA <br />2008 through 2020 <br /> <br />Projected household growth in Market Area (2008 to 2020) <br />(times) % of demand for general-occupancy housing (non age-restricted) <br />(equals) Estimated number of general-occupancy housing units <br />(times) Propensity to own <br />(equals) Potential owner-occupied households from HH gro\\1h <br /> <br />x <br /> <br />19,410 <br /> <br />90% <br />17,469 <br /> <br />x <br /> <br />85% <br /> <br />14,849 <br /> <br /> <br />For-Sale Demand by Product Type <br />(times) Percent of demand by home value2 x 65% 35% 70% 30% <br />(equals) Lots/units supportable in the MA from 2008 to 2020 5,308 2,858 4,677 2,005 <br />(times) Estimated percent capturable by Arden Hills x 10% 10% 10% 10% <br />(equals) Lots/units supportable in Arden HiJls from 2008 to 2020 531 286 468 200 <br />(minus) Existing available lots/units in Arden Hills3 0 0 0 0 <br />(Equals) Additionallot/unit demand that can be captured by TCAAP 531 286 468 200 <br /> <br /> <br />] Multifamily includes townhomes, twinhomes, and condominiums. <br />2 Single-family (move-up equals $325,000 to $525,000, executive = $525,000), Multifamily (modest = <$275,000, move-up = $275,000+) <br />3 Estimated Competitive units marketing/under construction. Does not include future proposed developments. <br />Note: Pricing is in 2008 Dollars. <br /> <br />Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> <br /> <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. <br /> <br />74 <br />