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01-22-08 1B Market Study
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01-22-08 1B Market Study
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1/18/2008 11:19:37 AM
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1/18/2008 11:17:07 AM
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Market Study by Maxfield Research
General - Type
Agenda Item
Date
1/22/2008
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<br />. <br /> <br />Of the projected demand for about 17,500 general-occupancy housing units between 2008 <br />and 2020, we estimate that 15% will be for rental housing. This equates to demand for <br />about 2,600 rental units between 2008 and 2020 in the Market Area. <br /> <br /> <br />CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br /> <br />Rental Demand <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Demand will be generated by households of varying income-levels. Based on income <br />trends, we project that half of the demand will be from households with sufficient income <br />to afford market rate units - or 80% or more of median income ($41,700+ for a one- <br />person household). An estimated 35% of demand would be from households earning be- <br />tween 50% and 80% of median income ($27,500 and $41,700 for single-person house- <br />holds. The remaining demand would be for deep-subsidized housing where residents pay <br />30% of their income for rent. <br /> <br />TABLE 30 <br />DEMAND FOR NEW GENERAL-OCCUPANCY RENTAL HOUSING <br />ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA <br />2008-2020 <br /> <br />2008-2020 <br /> <br />Projected household growth in Market Area (2008 to 2020) <br />(times) Estimated % of demand for general occupancy housing <br />(equals) Estimated demand for new general~occupancy homes <br />(times) Proportion of households wishing to rent <br />(equals) Estimated number of new renter households from HH growth <br /> <br />19,410 <br /> <br />x <br /> <br />90% <br /> <br />17,469 <br /> <br />x <br /> <br />15% <br /> <br />2.620 <br /> <br />1~1~ ~~~~ <br /> <br />(times) Estimated percent of demand by product type* <br />(equals) Demand by product type in the Market Area <br /> <br />x <br /> <br />35% <br /> <br />9]7 <br /> <br />50% <br />1,310 <br /> <br />170 <br /> <br />1,140 <br /> <br />(less) Rental units pending/under construction <br />(equals) Potential demand for rental housing <br /> <br />o <br />917 <br /> <br /> <br />(times) Estimated percent of renter demand capturable in Arden Hills <br /> <br />* Market-rate units are estimated to be affordable by housholds with incomes above 80% of median income ($50,240 <br />for a 2-person household), affordable units would be those for households with incomes between 50%-80% of median <br />income. This calculation excludes demand for "deep subsidized" units, where very low income residents pay 30% of <br />their income for rent. <br /> <br />Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Only one pending rental development was identified in the Market Area to satisfy de- <br />mand - a 170-unit townhome development in Blaine by Hans Hagen Homes. Subtracting <br />this development, demand is calculated for over 900 affordable units and over 1,100 mar- <br />ket rate units in the Market Area. <br /> <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. <br /> <br />75 <br />
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