01-22-08 1B Market Study - Laserfiche WebLink

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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ~ No one community or location can capture all of the Market Area demand. Given the ex- cellent location of the TCAAP site to jobs, shopping, and the Metro freeway network, we project it can capture 30% of the rental demand - or 275 affordable units and 340 market rate units between 2008 and 2020. Independent Senior Housing Demand Analysis Table 31 presents our demand calculations for market-rate, independent senior owner, rental, and congregate housing, including that for the Market Area in 2007 and 2012. In order to arrive at the potential age-income qualified base for independent senior housing, we have included all older adult, senior, and older senior households with incomes of $30,000 or more ($34,000 in 2012 to account for inflation) plus households with incomes of between $20,000 and $30,000 ($22,500 and $34,000 in 2012 to account for inflation) who would qualify with the proceeds from a home sale. We have estimated this proportion based on the home- ownership rates for each age cohort. We estimate the number of age/income/asset-qualified households in the Arden Hills Market Area as 15,400 households in 2007. Adjusting to include appropriate short-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of house- holds age 55-64, 11.5% percent of households age 65-74, and 21.5% of households age 75+) re- sults in a local short-term demand potential for approximately 1,350 market rate independent se- nior rental units. Independent demand in the Market Area is split into adult rental, owner and congregate housing. Adult housing offers no basic support services, congregate housing offers meals and basic sup- port services on an optional basis. Based on the age distribution and current trends of the Market Area population, we project that 43% of the Market Area demand will be for owner-occupied units (580 units), 20% will be for adult rental housing (300 units) in 2007 and 35% ofthe de- mand will be for congregate housing (475 units). Additional demand will come from outside the Market Area. We estimate that seniors currently residing outside the Market Area will generate 25% ofthe long-term demand for senior housing - increasing total demand to 775 owner-occupied units, 400 adult rental units and 630 congre- gate units. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children living in the Market Area, individuals who live just outside the Market Area and have an orientation to the area, as well as former residents who desire to return upon retirement. From this total, we subtract existing and pending units (minus a vacancy factor of 5% to allow for sufficient consumer choice and turnover). There are 493 existing competitive adult owner units, 250 rental units and 509 congregate units, for a total excess demand in 2007 for 280 adult owner units, 145 adult rental and 120 congregate units. Those figures change in 2012 to excess demand for 340 adult owner units, 240 adult rentals and 220 congregate units. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 76