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01-22-08 1B Market Study
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01-22-08 1B Market Study
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1/18/2008 11:19:37 AM
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1/18/2008 11:17:07 AM
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Market Study by Maxfield Research
General - Type
Agenda Item
Date
1/22/2008
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<br />CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />No one community or location can capture all of the Market Area demand. Given the ex- <br />cellent location of the TCAAP site to jobs, shopping, and the Metro freeway network, we <br />project it can capture 30% of the rental demand - or 275 affordable units and 340 market <br />rate units between 2008 and 2020. <br /> <br />Independent Senior Housing Demand Analysis <br /> <br />Table 31 presents our demand calculations for market-rate, independent senior owner, rental, and <br />congregate housing, including that for the Market Area in 2007 and 2012. <br /> <br />In order to arrive at the potential age-income qualified base for independent senior housing, we <br />have included all older adult, senior, and older senior households with incomes of $30,000 or <br />more ($34,000 in 2012 to account for inflation) plus households with incomes of between <br />$20,000 and $30,000 ($22,500 and $34,000 in 2012 to account for inflation) who would qualify <br />with the proceeds from a home sale. We have estimated this proportion based on the home- <br />ownership rates for each age cohort. We estimate the number of age/income/asset-qualified <br />households in the Arden Hills Market Area as 15,400 households in 2007. <br /> <br />Adjusting to include appropriate short-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of house- <br />holds age 55-64, 11.5% percent of households age 65-74, and 21.5% of households age 75+) re- <br />sults in a local short-term demand potential for approximately 1,350 market rate independent se- <br />nior rental units. <br /> <br />Independent demand in the Market Area is split into adult rental, owner and congregate housing. <br />Adult housing offers no basic support services, congregate housing offers meals and basic sup- <br />port services on an optional basis. Based on the age distribution and current trends of the Market <br />Area population, we project that 43% of the Market Area demand will be for owner-occupied <br />units (580 units), 20% will be for adult rental housing (300 units) in 2007 and 35% ofthe de- <br />mand will be for congregate housing (475 units). <br /> <br />Additional demand will come from outside the Market Area. We estimate that seniors currently <br />residing outside the Market Area will generate 25% ofthe long-term demand for senior housing <br />- increasing total demand to 775 owner-occupied units, 400 adult rental units and 630 congre- <br />gate units. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children living in the Market <br />Area, individuals who live just outside the Market Area and have an orientation to the area, as <br />well as former residents who desire to return upon retirement. <br /> <br />From this total, we subtract existing and pending units (minus a vacancy factor of 5% to allow <br />for sufficient consumer choice and turnover). There are 493 existing competitive adult owner <br />units, 250 rental units and 509 congregate units, for a total excess demand in 2007 for 280 adult <br />owner units, 145 adult rental and 120 congregate units. Those figures change in 2012 to excess <br />demand for 340 adult owner units, 240 adult rentals and 220 congregate units. <br /> <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. <br /> <br />76 <br />
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