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<br />District Market Analysis <br /> <br />Table 4 calculates demand for neighborhood retail space in the Retail Market Area. The <br />following bullet points summarize the demand calculations presented in Table 4. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />There were approximately 31,600 households in the total Retail Market Area in 2007. <br />Added are the number of employees estimated to work in the Retail Market Area. <br />There are approximately 21,100 non-resident households, or employees, working in <br />the Retail Market Area. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Based on the analysis of consumer expenditure data, it is estimated that consumer <br />expenditures for the types of neighborhood goods and services that could be <br />purchased in the Retail Market Area are $26,452 per household. <br /> <br />TABLE4 . <br />DEMAND FOR NEIGHBORHOOD RETAIL SPACE <br />ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA <br />2005 to 20]5 <br /> <br />2007 <br /> <br />2012 <br /> <br />(divided by) Average sales per Sq. Ft.3 <br />(equals) Total Retail Space Demand (Sq. Ft.) <br /> <br /> 3 I ~358 32,191 <br />+ 2 I ~093 22,477 <br />x $26,452 $31 ,660 <br /> $1,387,424,382 $1,730,800,151 <br /> 200/0 200/0 <br /> $277,484,876 $346,160,030 <br /> $1,109,939,506 $1 ,384,640~121 <br /> $234 $258 <br /> 4,741,508 5,357,389 <br /> <br />Market Area Households <br />Market Area Employees2 <br />( times) Annual Neighborhood Household Expenditures <br />(equals) Total Market Area Expenditures <br /> <br />(plus) Approx. % Leakage Outside the Market Areal <br />( equals) Leakage Outside of Market Area <br />(equals ) Total Purchasing Power <br /> <br /> <br />I This Positive Leakage Factor is the estimated percentage of conSUlner expenditures spent by Market Area households <br />~tlB.1amiJh~ervices outside of the Market Area. <br /> <br />2We estimate that approximately of 1/3 of Market Area elnployees make purchases in Market Area. <br />3 From Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers~ Urban Land Institute. <br /> <br />Sources: Claritas; <br />Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers~ Urban Land Institute; <br />Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> <br />· Multiplying the consumer expenditure figure by the number of households and <br />employees results in total retail sales of $1.4 billion. However, factoring in leakage <br />of retail dollars spent by Retail Market Area residents to centers outside of the Retail <br />Market Area at 80 percent, the total demand in the Retail Market Area is reduced to <br />$1.1 billion. (Leakage could potentially decline if particular types of retail were <br />added in Arden Hills.) <br /> <br />3-4 Guiding Plan for the 82 District <br /> <br />20 October <br />