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<br />District Market Analysis <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Utilizing average sales per square foot from Dollars and Cents afShopping Centers <br />and adjusted to account for location factors by Maxfield Research, it was determined <br />that the Retail Market Area demand was about 4.7 million square feet in 2006, <br />increasing to about 5.4 million square feet in 2012. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />No one site can capture 100 percent of the demand as the subject site will compete <br />with other areas in the Retail Market Area for new retail stores over this period. We <br />estimate that the study area would be able capture 5 percent to 10 percent of the <br />neighborhood retail demand, or about 30,800 to 61,600 square feet between 2007 <br />and 2012. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Using the same methodology as above to calculate demand for specialty retail space <br />in Table 5, it was estimated that the study area would be able capture 5 percent to <br />10 percent of the specialty retail demand, or about 9,300 to 18,500 square feet <br />between 2007 and 2012. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />If Arden Plaza remains in its current state, we feel that the study area would capture <br />demand for neighborhood and specialty retail space at the 5 percent levels shown in <br />Tables 2 and 3. However, if Arden Plaza is repositioned or renovated in the future, <br />demand could reach the 10 percent levels as shown in the illustrated demand tables. <br /> <br />TABLE 5 <br />DEMAND FOR SPECIAL TY RETAIL SPACE <br />ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA <br />2007 to 20]2 <br /> <br />2007 <br /> <br />2012 <br /> <br />Market Area Households <br />Market Area Employee~ <br />(tilnes) Annual Specialty Household Expenditures <br />(equals ) Total Market Area Expenditures <br /> <br />(plus) Approx. % Leakage Outside the Market Ar~a <br />( equals) Leakage Outside of Market Area <br />(equals ) Total Purchasing Power <br /> <br /> 31,358 32,191 <br />+ 21,093 22,477 <br />x $12,658 $14,869 <br /> $663,920,226 $812,863,785 <br /> 400/0 400/0 <br /> $265,568,091 $325,]45,514 <br /> $398,352,136 $487,718,271 <br /> $234 $258 <br /> ] 701 705 ] 887 058 <br /> 2007 to 2012 <br /> ] 85,353 <br /> <br /> <br />I This Positive Leakage Factor is the estimated percentage of conSUlner <br /> <br />2We estimate that approxilnately of 113 of Market Area elnployees make purchases in Market Area. <br />} From ~Urban Land Institute. <br /> <br />Sources: Clatitas; <br />Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centel~Urban Land Institute; <br />Maxfield Research blC. <br /> <br />20 October <br /> <br />Guiding Plan for the 82 District 3-5 <br />