2024-05-07 P & Z Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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LaLonde Development Traffic Study May 1, 2024 Page 6 TRAFFIC FORECASTS Traffic forecasts were developed for year 2027 Phase 1 and Phase 2 build conditions, which represents one-year after opening. The traffic forecasts account for general background growth and trip generation from the proposed development (for each phase). No reductions for the existing uses were applied to provide a more conservative assessment. The following information summarizes the traffic forecast development process. Background Growth To account for general background growth in the study area, an annual growth rate of two (2) percent was applied to the existing traffic volumes to develop year 2027 background traffic forecasts. This growth rate is consistent with historical ADT volume growth in the study area, as well as forecasted growth within Anoka Countys 2040 Transportation Plan Update. This growth rate accounts for development outside of the study area, as well as from adjacent communities. Proposed Development Trip Generation Trip generation estimates for each phase of the proposed development were created using the ITE Trip th Generation Manual, 11 Edition and includes trips for typical weekday a.m. and p.m. peak hours, as well as daily. Phase 1 of the proposed development, shown in Table 2, is estimated to generate 55 a.m. peak hour (13 in / 42 out), 65 p.m. peak hour (41 in / 24 out), and 742 daily trips. No multiuse or modal reductions were applied under Phase 1 conditions. After completion of Phase 2 of the proposed development, the overall site is estimated to generate a total of 120 a.m. peak hour (53 in / 67 out), 167 p.m. peak hour (96 in / 71 out), and 1,732 daily trips. Note that Phase 1 represents approximately 35% of the total trip generation potential of the project site and that the Phase 2 estimate includes a 15% multiuse / modal reduction to account for the interaction between the residential and retail uses, as well as alternative modes of transportation. Table 2 Trip Generation Summary AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Land Use Type (ITE Code) Size Daily In Out In Out Phase 1 Multifamily Housing Low-Rise (220) 104 units 13 42 41 24 742 Phase 2 (Potential Future) General Strip Retail (822) 10,000 SF 17 12 39 39 652 High-Turnover Sit-Down Restaurant (932) 6,000 SF 32 25 33 21 644 Total Phase 2 Development Trips (with Phase 1) 62 79 113 84 2,038 Multi-use / Multimodal Reduction (15%) - 9 - 12 - 17 - 13 - 306 Total Development Trips (with Phases 1 and 2) 53 67 96 71 1,732 Site generated trips for each development phase were distributed throughout the study area using the directional distribution shown in Figure 4, which is based on a combination of existing area travel patterns and engineering judgment. The resultant year 2027 build condition traffic forecasts for each phase are illustrated in Figure 5.