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Urban Land.- Planning Communities for 2020 Attachment I 6 q pib 0 o anning mmuni fP toes l I y JoihIn Martin At the bottom of each cycle, there are those who identify niche opportunities, imagine coincepts, and innovate with communities and housing products that get people back into the market. As the industry emerges froim the recent recession-and works to imagine what people want, can afford, and will buy and rent-it ponders this question.- what will planned communities loioik like in the future? What has changed in the masiter-lplanned community development industry and what has sitayed the siame? Developers heave learn�ed mu& duirin�g the industry 11 s past five decades: that it is a cyclical business, that the market becomes overh�eated in every cycle, that prices soar and peaks are reached, that demand and prices drop dramatically, and that the tyranny of the uirgen�t obsesses the industry, and it suffers for years., During a market ruin �-uip, the truce drivers of deman�d are disguised as the industry produices and sells to meet demand. Then, in the down�tuirn�, it become paralyzed and the recovery takes a long time. Yet, at the bottom of each cycle, there are those who identify niche opportunities, imagine concepts, and innovate with commuin�ities and h�ouisin�g produicts that get people back inito the market. As the industry emerges from the recent recession�-an works to uin erstan the drivers of demand and imagine what people want, can afford, and will buy and rent -wheat will plan�n�ed commuin�ities look like in the future? Thee first step in envisioning fuituire commuin�ities is to identify how households will change in this decade and what it reruns for raster - planned commuin�ities in 2020. For this forward look, I analyzed the September 201 O working paper "'Updated 201�0-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projection "' by the Joint Center for Housing Stuff ies (JCHS) at Harvard University. There will be over 10 million more households occupied by people age 55 to 74 at the end of this decade than there are n�ow. Together, the two ten -year age gromps from 25 to 44 are adding a total of only 1.9 million households in the next ten years, and there will be 2.,3 million fewer households with people in the age grouip 45 to 54. As generation Y-those age 14 to 31 in 2011 and 23 to 40 in 2020-grows older and forms new households, deman for family h�ouisin�g will increase. Thee uiestion to consider is wh�eth�er the industry sh�ouild buiild commuin�ities for this market, wh�eth�er these households will be absorbed into the single-family detached h�ouisin�g located in the plan�n�ed commuin�ities buiilt over the past five decades, or wh�eth�er they will choose to live in in�fill Iodations closer to amenities and services. Thee dramatic change to ackn�owledge in this decade is http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTM4NzgOMzc`/`3D 09/14/2011