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Debra Bloom,, P.E. City of Roseville RegionaI Travel Pattern Shii fts July 13, 2011 Page 12 The license plate O-D study provides an understanding of travel patterns at the local level under current conditions. In order to understand the expanded attraction this connection may have on the transportation system, if any, the Metropolitan Council Regional Travel Demand Model was used to identify potential pattern shifts from outside of the immediate study area. The regional model takes into account current and planned households, employment figures, and transportation network changes (under future conditions) to project traffic volumes and travel patterns. The future construction of Twin Lakes Parkway was considered under future conditions to understand if this connection would provide an efficient route for trips to this area. It was determined that fewer than five percent of the proposed Twin Lakes Redevelopment Area travel shed will use either Josephine Road or County Road C2. Therefore, the County Road C2 connection does not serve a significant amount of traffic destined for the Twin Lakes redevelopment area. Based on the Regional Travel Demand Model, approximately 450 vehicles per day will divert from County Road C to use County Road C2. Other regional system travel pattern shifts include a reduction of approximately 350 vehicles per day from other regional routes in the area (i.e., I Snelling Avenue, County Road B2, TH 36, County Road E, etc.). Therefore,, the potential County Road C2 connection regional travel pattern shift would be approximately 800 vehicles per day under year 2011 conditions. Overal] Travel Pattern Shii fts The local and regional travel pattern shifts combined together result in a year 2011 diversion of approximately 1,900 vehicles per day using County Road C2 if the connection were constructed. This results in a year 2011 County Road C2 average daily traffic volume of approximately ,510 between Hamline Avenue and Lexington Avenue. Figure 9 shows the net change for the key east/west roadways within the study area and the expected year 2011 average daily traffic volumes if the County Road C2 connection were constructed. Year 2011 , Peak Hour Intersection Operations To establish a baseline for the area intersection operations, a p.m. peak hour intersection capacity analysis was completed. This analysis was used to compare the operational impacts with and without the potential County Road C2 connection. The operations analysis was conducted using a combination of the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) and Synchro/SimTraffic software (version 7). The current p.m. peak hour volumes collected and the modified p.m. peak hour volumes based on the potential County Road C2 connection that were used for the operations analysis are shown in Figure 10. It should be noted that only the p.m. peak hour was reviewed due to it representing a worst-case scenario for the adjacent roadway network. This has been validated with the daily data that has been collected.