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A GUIDE TO RETAIL IMPACT STUDIES Any new, large-scale retail development will provide local authorities with a similarly scaled increase in assessed valuation and property tax payments. On the other hand, the reduction in value in other properties negatively affected by the retail development may offset that increase. The analyst must seek to identify any related and offsetting declines in property values in other commercial or residential areas. The challenge is to forecast the location, pace, and degree of decline in these other areas. Analysts will want to refer to what has occurred in similar circumstances in other areas in the state and country to aid in their projections by analogy; will want to project impacts over time; and will want to balance carefully the data indicators to provide a reasoned assessment of what degree and type of decline may be anticipated. Public Infrastructure and Services There has been much discussion across the nation regarding the costs and benefits of large- scale retail developments with regard to public infrastructure and services. Infrastructure demands such as water and sewer are a relatively simple matter for local officials and utility providers to estimate and should be used as part of any analysis. Communities face a challenge when a large project would quickly exhaust current excess capacity, thereby forcing an earlier than expected investment in capacity increases. Traffic demands and associated public works costs (including initial infrastructure outlays and ongoing costs) are also quantifiable by specialist consultants and municipal planners. It is recommended analysts use the estimates supplied by those experts. Demands on public services such as police, fire, and rescue present another challenge. Any new development in a community is likely to call upon these services, yet forecasting the degree to which demand may increase is difficult. Calls for police and fire intervention are frequently reported to be higher at large-scale retail developments than in similarly sized traditional commercial districts. A simple method in which to forecast these costs is to calculate the cost of these services on a per square foot basis in current retail projects and assume the same relative costs with increased square footage in the new development. Other Municipal Costs and Benefits The analysis should state the amount of any public subsidies, including tax increment financing, that the development is slated to receive. It should also detail the value of any community benefits negotiated with the developer. Municipalities nationwide have increasingly attempted to negotiate terms for the development of large-scale retail projects to ensure a net benefit for their communities. These terms may include conditions that the developer hire a specified number of employees, provide a minimum level of wages and benefits, donate conserved and public land, contribute to extraordinary municipal costs caused by the development, and commit to an exit plan in the event of the store's closure to ensure there will be no empty large shell made unavailable to others' reuse. In many cases, these negotiations result in an incentive package with monetary value. Such incentives must be incorporated into any analysis of costs and benefits. 22