2012_0319_Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

Home

A GUIDE TO RETAIL IMPACT STUDIES nearby areas. From that information and public tax records, the analyst should be able to estimate total local square footage occupied by retailers specializing in the lines of goods most directly impacted by the proposed new store. In the smallest markets, that estimate may be made more comprehensive based on the earlier survey of local retail firms. From that baseline, it is a simple matter to calculate the percentage increase in total retail space and space dedicated to the particular lines of goods. If the increase in space is substantially comparable to the near term growth prospects of the community overall, the economic analyst will be hard pressed to assert significant difficulties related to oversupply. However, in many communities, a large-scale retail project will represent a tremendous increase in total retail space in the impact area, raising concerns about oversupply, vacancy, and declining rents. Moreover, many communities contain underutilized spaces originally designed and currently zoned for non-retail uses. In such circumstances, the analyst may be asked to consider the potential retail uses of these spaces and, where appropriate, incorporate them into the supply and demand discussion. A related challenge associated with large increases is the relocation of the center of gravity in regional retail. In a traditional community, the downtown area may remain the retail anchor. In others, retail activity may have spread in one direction or another from the center. In all of these, however, large-scale projects raise the prospect of significantly and permanently altering traffic patterns in the impact area and leaving vacancies in formerly prosperous areas. Municipal officials, property owners, business owners, and nearby residents may be greatly concerned about a project drawing away shoppers, as they struggle to maintain activity, revenue, and infrastructure in declining commercial areas. Forecasting the location, pace, and degree of such decline is, of course, a challenge. Analysts should, however, be able to indicate which commercial areas are likely to be negatively affected by a new large scale retail project and the degree of that impact. Findings of this nature are highly relevant to municipal planning officials when evaluating permitting and zoning applications. Comprehensive Plan Compatibility For those municipalities in the impact area that have adopted comprehensive land use plans or related growth management documents, the analyst will want to review those plans and documents to identify relevant provisions as to which the proposed large scale retail project is or is not consistent. The analyst may also want to confer with planning officials, groups, commissions, unions and chambers of commerce for further insights into the project's anticipated community impacts. Revenue Retained and Reinvested in the Region A "local premium" is a term defined recently and refers to the amount of money kept in the local economy by a retail business. This is calculated separately from the standard economic or fiscal impact and is usually expressed as a percentage of sales revenue. It includes such factors as 24