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Fiscal Impact Analysis of Five Growth Scenarios Calven County, Maryland III. SCENARIOS EVALUATED The following five growth scenarios were analyzed using T A's software designed exclusively for Calvert County. The results of each of these scenarios are discussed in Section IV, Fiscal Impact Results. 1. Current Trends. This scenario assumes that the current rates of population, housing unit and nonresidential growth continue to 2020. Therefore, the average annual increase of population grows from 1,829 in 1998 to 2005 to 2,750 in 2010 to 2020. The office space projections assume service primarily to the resident population at the current rate of 7 square feet per capita. No additional industriaVflex space is projected after 2005 in this scenario as it is assumed there is no longer land available with appropriate zoning and sufficient infrastructure. 2. High Economic Development The High Economic Development scenario assumes the same population and household growth as the Current Trends scenario. The nonresidential component of this scenario assumes that an adequate supply of. suitable land is zoned for office and industrial/flex activity, public water and sewer is available to this land, and a strong marketing program is in place. 3. Constrained Growth. The Constrained Growth scenario assumes that market conditions soften and/or other steps are taken to slow growth. With the exception of industriallflex space, it is assumed as a proxy that the projected residential and nonresidential growth is approximately 50% of the Current Trends scenario. 4. Slowed Growth Option One. The Slowed Growth Option One scenario assumes that residential growth is 75% of the Current Trends scenario. The population pace remains what the County is currently experiencing. It does. not increase like Current Trends. While the residential component grows at a rate slower than under Current Trends, this scenario assumes office and industriallflex space grow at the same rate as Current Trends. Because population and labor force would increase at a rate 75% of CUlTent Trends, the County would need aggressive marketing to attract projected nonresidential development. These are 92.925 and 108,901 more square feet. respectively, than if office and industrial/flex were the same ratio as residential and retail. 5. Slowed Growth Option Two (With Enhanced Economic Development). The Slowed Growth Option Two scenario assumes the same population and household growth as the Slowed Growth Option One scenario just discussed. Just as in the High Economic Development scenario, this scenario assumes that an adequate supply of suitable land is zoned for office and industrial/flex activity, public . wa~er and sewer is available to this land, and a strong marketing program is in place. 11 Tischler & Associates. Inc.