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<br />Fiscal Impact Analysis of Five Growth Scenarios
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<br />Calvert County, Maryland
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<br />A. Population, Housing and Employment Projections
<br />The current and projected population. housing units, nonresidential square feet, and
<br />employment for Calvert County and the five scenarios are summarized in the
<br />sections below.
<br />
<br />'1. Population
<br />The current population in Calvert County is estimated at 69,400. The table below
<br />contains detailed information pertaining to net population increases and average
<br />annual increases.
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<br />Average Annual Projected PopulatJon Increase by Scenarto
<br />calvert County, Maryland
<br />
<br /> 1998-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 Net lnerease
<br />Scenarto Avg. Ann. Inc. Avg. Ann.lnc. Avg. Ann. Inc. Avg. Ann. Inc. 1998-2020
<br />Current Trends 1,829 2,560 2,750 2,750 53,103
<br />High Economic Development 1,829 2,560 2,750 2,750 53,103
<br />COnstrained Growth 1.277 1.225 1,185 922 25,600
<br />Slowed Growth One 1,826 1,812 1,803 1,794 39,831
<br />SlOwed Growth Two 1,826 1,812 1,803 1.794 39,831
<br />· Average Annual Increases are yearty totals.
<br />Net ina-eases are the sum of averaae annual multiPlied bY the number of vears In the time Derlod.
<br />
<br />The current population of 69,400 is projected to increase by 53,103 persons, or 77%,
<br />under the Current Trends and High Economic Development scenarios. On an
<br />average annual basis, population increases at faster rates later in the analysis time
<br />period (i.e. 1,829 annually from 1998 to 2005 and 2,750 annually during the 2015 to
<br />2020 period). Population growth under Constrained Growth is projected to increase
<br />by 25,600 persons, or 37%. On an annual average basis, population growth slows
<br />gradually, from an average annual rate of 1,277 from 1998 to 2005 to a slower rate of
<br />922 annually during the 2015 to 2020 period. Population growth under the two
<br />Slowed Growth scenarios is projected to increase by 39,831 persons, or 57%. .As is
<br />the case in the Constrained Growth scenario, population grovlth is faster on" an
<br />average annual basis in the beginning of the analysis time period, 1,826 annually
<br />from 1998 to 2005 to 1,794 annually during the 2015 to 2020 period.
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<br />2. Housing Units
<br />The current number of housing units in Calvert County is estimated at 25,112. The
<br />existing housing stock is over 90% single family. This trend is projected to continue
<br />in each of the-five scenarios, where single family units are approximately 95% of the
<br />total net increase. The table below contains detailed information pertaining to net
<br />housing unit increases and average annual increases.
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<br />Tischler & Associates, Inc.
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