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Fiscal Impact Analysis of Five Growth Scenarios Calvert County, Maryland Slowed Growth scenarios is projected to increase by 2.2 million and 3.7 million square feet, respectively. These are increases of 71 % and 119%, respectively. On, an annual average basis, nonresidential square footage growth follows the same pattern as Current Trends. The Slowed Growth Option Two scenario assumes greater nonresidential square footage as a result of a more aggressive marketing program and suitably zoned land is available for office and industriaUflex aqtivity, although not to the same scale as is assumed under High Economic Development. Under .this scenario an additional 1.4 million square feet of retail, 516,300 square feet of office (144,600 more square feet than under Current Trends) and 1.7 million square feet of industriallflex space (1.3 million more than under Current Trends) is projected. This is an enhanced economic development scenario, but the nonresidential growth projected is modest compared to the High Economic Development scenario. 4. Employment The current employment in Calvert County is estimated at 15,234. The table below contains detailed info~ation pertaining to net employment increases and average annual increases. Average Annual Projected Employment Increases by Scenario calvert County, Mary1and 1998-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 201s.2020 Net Increase Scenario Avg. Ann. Inc. Avg. Ann. Inc. Avg. Ann. Inc. Avg. Ann. Inc. 1998-2020 Current Trends 357 182 237 558 7,380 High Econorric Development 403 631 845 1.158 15,989 Constrained Growth 285 95 118 'Z21 4,192 Slowed Growth One 357 147 184 401 6,161 Slowed Growth Two 384 327 446 6S4 9,820 .Average Annual Increases are yearty totals. Net increases 8fe the sum of averaae annual multiDliecl by the number of vUrs in the time period. The current estimate of 15,234 jobs in Calvert County is projected to increase by 7,380, or 48%, under the Current Trends scenario. On an average annual basis, employment growth inaeases faster in the first seven years and last five yea~ of the analysis period as a result of the absorption of the remaining available flex space from 1998 to 2005. Employment growth slows from 2005. to 2015_ once the flex space has been absorbed. Employment increases on an average annual. basis from 2015 to 2020 as population approach levels that support regional serving retail. Employment growth under High Economic Development is projected to increase by 15,989 jobs, or 104%. Under this scenario an additional 4,869 retail jobs, 4,481 office jobs (2,976 more than under Current trends) and 6,640 industriaVflex jobs (5.634 more than under Current Trends) is projected. Employment growth under Constrained Growth is projected to increase by 4,192 jobs, or 28%. Employment growth ..under the two Slowed Growth scenarios is projected to increase by 6.161 and 9,820 jobs, respectively. These are increases of 40% and 64%, respectively. On an annual average basis, employment growth follows a similar pattem- as Current Trends. The Slowed Growth Option Two 15 .. Tischler & Associates, Inc.