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<br />Fiscal Impact Analysis of Five Growth Scenarios
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<br />Calvert County, Maryland
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<br />Average Annual Nonresidential Square Footage Growth by Scenario
<br />Calvert C OUrtty, Maryland
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<br /> I Nonresidential Sa. Ft.
<br />Scenario I Retell Office Flnl Total
<br />Currrent Trend.
<br />1998-2005 Ava. Ann, Increase 59 944 15 600 62 229 131 712
<br />2005.2010 AV9. Ann. Increase 50,157 14,000 - 64,151
<br />2010-2015 Ava. Ann. Increase 65 146 18 200 - 83,346
<br />2015-2020 Ava. Ann. Increase 190,280 20,300 - 210,580
<br />Net Cumulative Increase 1998-2020 1,941,516 371,100 .u5,60S 2.154816
<br />Hlah Economic Deve/oDment
<br />1998-2005 Ava. Ann. Increase 59 944 25.152 65 HO 150.438
<br />2005-2010 Ava. Ann. Increase 50,157 50,304 130,880 231,141
<br />2010-2015 Ava. Ann. Increese 65 146 67.910 176 418 3011 474
<br />2015-2020 Ava. Ann. Increase 190280 67 910 176 418 434 808
<br />Net Cumulative Increase 1998-2020 1,1147.516 1,106,818 2,814,1160 5,921,184
<br />Con.tr.'ned Growth
<br />1998-2005 Ava. Ann. Increase 43 879 7 800 62 229 113,1101
<br />2005-2010 Ava. Ann. Increase 26,683 7,000 - 33,883
<br />2010-2015 Ava. Ann. Increase 32,377 9,100 - 41,471
<br />2015-2020 Ava. Ann. Increase 74 209 10 150 . UUI
<br />Net Cum ulative Increa5e 1998-2020 173,500 185,8SO 435,803 1,584,U3
<br />Slowed Growth Option One.
<br />1998-2005 Ava. Ann. Increase 59,944 15 600 62 229 137,713
<br />2005-2010 AVa. Ann, Incresse 36,113 14,000 - 50,113
<br />2010-2015 AVQ. Ann. Increase 44 299 18 200 . 82,4118
<br />2015-20.2t1 AVQ. Ann. Incresse 127,678 20.300 - 147,978
<br />Net Cumulative Increase 1998-2020 1,480,053 371,700 U5,803 2,287,358
<br />Slowed Growth Option Two
<br />1998-2005 Avg. Ann. Increase 59 944 20293 65.651 145.888
<br />2005-2010 AvO. Ann. Increase 36,113 18,7 50 69,696 124,559
<br />2010-2015 AVa. Ann. Increase 44.299 28.050 95.832 188,181
<br />2015-2020 Ava. Ann. Increase 127 078 28 050 95 832 251,580
<br />Net Cum ulative Increase 1998-2020 1,460,053 516.300 1,768,358 3,742,711
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<br />The current estimate of 3.1 million square feet of nonresidential space in Calvert
<br />County is projected to increase by 2.7 million square feet, or 87%, under the Current
<br />Trends scenario. On an average annual basis, nonresidential square footage
<br />increases faster in the first seven years and last five years of the analysis period as a
<br />result of the absorption of the remaining available flex space from 1998 to 2005.
<br />Nonresidential square footage growth slows from 2005 to 2015 once the flex space
<br />has been absorbed. Nonresidential square footage increases on an average annual
<br />basis from 2015 to 2020 as population approach levels that support regional serving
<br />retail.
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<br />Nonresidential square footage under High Economic Development is projected to
<br />increase by 5.9 million square feet, or 190%. It is assumed under this scenario that
<br />an adequate supply of land is zoned for office and industriallflex activity, public water
<br />and sewer is available to this land, and a strong marketing program is in place. Under.
<br />this scenario an additional 1.9 million square feet of retail, 1.1 million SQuare feet of
<br />office (700,000 more square feet than under Current Trends) and 2.9 million square
<br />feet of industrial/flex space (2.4 million mOfe square feet than under Current Trends)
<br />is projected.
<br />
<br />Nonresidential square footage under Constrained Growth is projected to increase by
<br />almost 1.6 million square feet, or 52%. Nonresidential square footage under the two
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<br />Tischler & Associates, Inc.
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