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III. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Two growth scenarios will be analyzed as part of this study: 1) a Trends Growth scenario, and 2) a Concentrated Growth scenario. These scenarios are described in more detail in the City's December 7, 1998 memorandul!l entitled, "Fiscal Impact Study n City of Roseville." Both the methodology and the projection rationale are described in this memo. In general, the Trends Growth scenario represents the buildout of the remaining available vacant land in the City. whereas the Concentrated Growth scenario represents an emphasis on redevelopment with higher density residential and a significant increase in nonresidential development over 20 years compared to Trends. The table below shows the 1999 demographic and employment levels in the City of Roseville. For purposes of the analysis, the City has been divided into three Fiscal Analysis Zones (FAZs). These zones are contiguous geographic areas based on typical development characteristics in the City and are also described in the December 7 memo. As of 1999, there are an estimated 34,334 residents living in 15,142 dwelling units in the City and 37,282 employees working in the City. FISCAL ANALYSIS WNES PAZl FAZ2 FAZ3 Population 23.375 10,283 677 Total Dwelling Units 10,301 4,549 292 Single Family Units 5579 2,653 193 Medium Density Units 920 128 0 Hi h Densit Units 3,802 1,768 99 Total Employment NA NA NA Retail Employment NA NA NA Office Employment NA NA NA InduslolFlex Em 10 ment NA NA NA Source: City of Roseville Community Development Department, TA TOTAL 34,334 15,142 8,425 1,048 5,669 37,282 11 ,809 15,588 9,885 The tables on the following pages summarize the residential and nonresidential projections for each of the two scenarios from 1999 to 2020 at five year increments. The 1999 to 2020 total increase is also shown at the bottom of the tables. For the Trends Growth scenario, the total population in the City from new growth increases by 1,555 residents, from 34,334 residents in 1999 to 35,889 residents by 2020. This represents about a 5 percent increase over the analysis period. Total employment increases by 4,610, from 37,282 employees in 1999 to 41,892 employees by 2020. This is 12 percent increase. For the Concentrated Growth scenario, the total population in the City from new growth increases by 3,037 residents, from 34.334 residents in 1999 to 37,372 residents by 2020. This represents about a 9 percent increase over the analysis period. Under this scenario, total employment increases by a much larger 31,010 employees, from 37,282 employees in 1999 to 68.292 employees by 2020, an 83 percent increase. Page 5 Tischler & Associates, Inc.