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. f:ofRA,F1 \ D/~ COp The table shows a fairly consistent level of activity in each '~);;V~~Since 1988 until 1992 when a significant increase in number of sales took place ~A1Jthe study area and in Region I overall. In the first 11 months of 1992, sales were i~ percent ahead of all of 1991 in the study area and 17 percent ahead of 1991 in Region L The increased activity reflects the strengthening of the local economy as well as very low interest rates which spurred sales of new and existing homes as well as refinancing. Median selling price is a more accurate reflection of value than average selling price since the average price can be skewed upward by a few very high priced homes. Median selling price increased in all study area MLS districts between 1988 and 1992, although the increases were modest The Arden HillsjShoreview district had the larg- est increase in median selling price, roughly 10 percent The North Central Suburban district (Uttle Canada, Vadnais Heights and North Oaks) had the smallest increase, slightly more than 1 percent This district includes North Oaks which is not part of the study area. North Oaks has some of the highest priced housing in the Twin Cities and thus skews the values shown for the district. North Oaks has significantly higher housing values than in Uttle Canada or Vadnais Heights. Median value in 1992 thus far ranged from $96,850 in District 766 (Mounds View, New Brighton, St Anthony) to $120,900 in District 706 (Uttle Canada, Vadnais Heights, North Oaks). The median for all Region I districts was roughly $90,300. District 702 which in- cludes Roseville, Falcon Heights and Lauderdale, had a median selling price of $99,000 in the first eleven months of 1992. The study area's estimated median (a weighted average of the individual district medians) was about $110,100 through No- vember 1992. If a senior in the study area sold their home for the estimated median price, they would have proceeds of about $102,000 which would generate an income of $426 per month based on a 5 percent return. If the senior sold their home for the median price in Roseville ($99,000), there would be about $92,000 in net proceeds which would gerierate $383 per month in extra income. Supplementary Markets In addition to the current base of seniors in the study area, there are two sources of supplementary demand for the proposed project. Both sources are constituency groups of Northwestern College who would be drawn to the project because of its sponsorship by the college. These groups are 1) retired alumni and 2) retired profes- sors and staff. ' Retired Alumni Northwestern College staff furnished information to us regarding the number of alumni households by year of graduation. We asked for the information to be group- ed into three categories: 1) alumni who graduated between 1946 and 1951 (persons who are now in their mid to late 60's) who are likely prospects for the proposed housing over the next 10 years; 2) those who graduated between 1941 and 1945 (now in their mid 70's), the. likely target market for a proposed congregate development; 2-2