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Projections <br />We believe that COST's disciplined adherence to the best warehousing principles, <br />aggressive expansion, and tight operating controls and systems will help to produce <br />burgeoning earnings. Further enhancing the company's opportunities for growth are the <br />warehouse industry's growing consumer acceptance and fast-growing market share. <br />For the full year of 1986 (ending September), we project .that sales will grow 105-110%. <br />Earnings should equal about 50.30 per share (untaxed) versus last year's $0.51 loss for <br />the same period. Preliminarily, we forcast that 1987 sales and EPS will jump 70-75% and <br />60-65%, respectively. Note that we have modestly lowered our earnings estimate fc' 1986 <br />from our previous forecast of 50.35-0.40 per share to reflect timing of the convertible <br />interest paid versus interest benefits from investment, heavy pre -opening costs re <br />COST's aggressive expansion and dilution. Dilution from the recent convertible <br />offering, timing of warehouse openings, allocation of other expenses, and unit <br />immaturity all can significantly influence and/or disrupt quarterly EPS patterns. <br />Q1 <br />Table 2 <br />Costco Wholesale Corp. <br />Quarterly EPS Projections <br />02 <br />Q3 <br />04 <br />F 1985 S(O.13) ($0.08) (50.13) (50.18) <br />F1936E O.00A 0.09A 0.04 0.17 <br />F 1987E 0.04-0.05 0.10-0.11 0.12-0.13 0.34-0.36 <br />F198SE <br />Underlying our estimates are the following assumptions: <br />Ycar (Sept.) <br />(50.'S1) <br />0.30 <br />0.60-0.65 <br />1.15-1.20 <br />1. Continued ra,,.;,id sales growth. Contributing to gains in volume are our <br />expectations of 25-30% same -store sales growth in each of 1986 and 1987 and 10-15 <br />new units opened each fiscal year through at least fiscal 1988. By that time, <br />warehouses should be annualizing at $50-60--million average volume. <br />2. Net margins o1 at least 1.2-1.400. by the end of fiscal 1988. Net of 1.8-2.0% is <br />attainable, we think, in a reasonable period thereafter. Aiding the improvement in <br />margins will primarily be sharp operating -ratio leverage from stronger per -unit <br />sales. Gross margins are expected to remain relatively near current levels, as <br />product -mix benefits are offset by aggressive pricing. The company would actually <br />like to cut prices moderately. SGA operating ratios should decline at least 200 <br />basis points from today's level of about 10%. No significant further borrowings and <br />resultant Interest costs are anticipated during the rest of the current fiscal year, <br />but financing for expansion is a possibility later next year. <br />3. Increased competition in most areas. COST now faces warehouse competition in <br />most of the markets in which it operates. While all new competition can hurt, we <br />discern very little difference in COST location performance with or without present <br />L <br />