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Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette <br />competition. It will be expanding to Minneapolis, Milwaukee, and Central and <br />Southern California this year. The first two have no current warehouse <br />competition. The last two are deemed understored by COST management. Lower initial <br />profits are expected from them. COST should be facing all of the leading warehouse <br />competitors with at least one to two locations by the end of fiscal 1987. <br />Risks <br />COST, naturally, has all of the risks normally associated with young* companies that are <br />growing explosively (overextension of supervision, distorted comparisons, maturing data <br />and people systems, etc.). Still, we remain comfortable with the company in those <br />respects because of its superior current systems capability, experienced and disciplined <br />managernaent, and record of performance. <br />To us, the key question is self-evident. Can COST maintain its rapid expansion and <br />profit development in large numbers of new areas at the same time that competition <br />sharply increases? We feel quite comfortable that it can do so during the forecast <br />period (through fiscal 1988) because COST's market choices appear to be quite prudent in <br />terms of limited competition, favorable population mixes, and prudent expense set-ups. <br />Beyond that, it is reasonable to expect much heavier competition, particularly in the <br />1990s. Our long-term concerns, however, are somewhat assuaged by COST's proper <br />warehouse methodologies, mentioned earlier, strong and early market positions, and <br />low-cost structure. <br />One topic keeps recurring in analytical discussion- the slower start of COST's Florida <br />units. COST, while profitable elsewhere, is still unprofitable in its five warehouse <br />Florida group. Some concern has been voiced about this and the supposed inconsistency <br />of COST units overall. We admit that Florida wouldn't have been our choice for <br />expansion, and we note that some of the' warehouses there are not operating anywhere near <br />Optimum levels. Still, we think that the issue is overrated and not likely to stifle <br />COST's growth. <br />Closer analysis of the individual units shows one warehouse, Ft. Lauderdale, to have <br />been by far the worst unit. Historically, it has represented the largest portion of <br />Florida losses. Interestingly, Ft. Lauderdale is getting some of the company's best <br />sales gains, today. It has the shortest lease term and could be closed with little <br />aggravation if it doesn't begin to perform at least near expectations by year-end. Of <br />the remaining four Florida units, Tampa and Clearwater also started slowly and have <br />trailed corporate expectations, the former a bad -site selection, we think, and the <br />latter now beginning to improve. <br />We expect the Florida warehouses, as a group, to begin snaking a modest profit <br />contribution next year, noting that they will represent only about 19% of footage by <br />1986's fiscal year-end. More important, COST's record of successful site selection is <br />impressive. Of 21 current units, 17 are operating satisfactorily or above budget, with <br />only one substantially deficient, a record of success almost all merchants would envy. <br />7 <br />