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2/16/2024 3:48:04 PM
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Planning Files
Planning Files - Planning File #
1676
Planning Files - Type
Rezoning
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certain warehouses originally scheduled for the first quarter is expected to <br />cause second quarter preopening expense to rise. Overall, we believe that <br />Costco will report both an operating and a pretax profit in the period ended <br />February 23, 1986 significantly above that of the first quarter of fiscal 1986. <br />For the full year of fiscal 1986, Costco plans to open 11-to-14 warehouses. <br />We believe that the company's net sales of warehouses will amount to <br />$775-to-$850 million, while membership fees will approximate $13-to-$15 <br />million. Therefore, total revenue is expected to range from $788-to-$865 <br />million, up 112.5%-to-132.7% from fiscal 1985. Given the factors impacting <br />the gross margin (as discussed above), we estimate that the gross margin for <br />the full year of fiscal 1986 will decline slightly rjr at best remain flat with <br />the 11.21% gross margin reported in fiscal 1985. We believe that this is in <br />line with plan. It is important to note that under these projections, gross <br />profit should increase at a rate roughly equivalent to that of total <br />revenues. Favorably, the rising volume from maturing warehouses is expected <br />to cause both S,G&A expense and preopening expense to decrease as a percentage <br />of sales. Thus, we believe that Costco will report an operating profit of <br />$7.25-to-$10.55 million in fiscal 1986, compared to ar, operating loss of <br />$3.263 million in fiscal 1985. Deferred compensation will drop substantially <br />this year, to $50,000 from last year's $1.292 million. Furthermore, interest <br />expense is expected to decline from fiscal 1985's $2.058 million to about <br />$900,000, largely due to the conversion of the 11.5% convertible subordinated <br />note held by Carrefour S.A. into common stock. Reflecting the higher cash <br />balance as a result of the initial public offering, interest income is <br />projected to amount to $1.2-to-$1.4 million, up from $885,000. Therefore, <br />pretax income should swing from a $3.263 million deficit in fiscal 1985 to a <br />$7.5-to-$11.0 million profit in fiscal 1986. Tax loss carryforwards and <br />investment tax credits are expected to offset virtually all of fiscal 1986's <br />tax liability, so that net income is projected to also equal $7.5-to-$11.0 <br />million. Based on 24.63 million shares outstanding, earnings for fiscal 1986 <br />are estimated at $0.30-to-S0.45 per share. <br />PRELIMINARY EARNINGS PROJECTION FOR 1987 AND BEYOND <br />In fiscal 1987, Costco's management plans to again open about 11-to-14 <br />warehouses. With the addition of these units and the increasing volume <br />projected from existing units, net sales of warehouses are expected to <br />increase to approximately $1.3-to-$1.5 billion, representing a year -over -year <br />gain of 67.7%-to-76.5%. Since the group fee program will have been <br />inaugurated in all but the recently opened warehouses by the end of fiscal <br />1986, membership fees are estimated to rise at a lower rate to $19.0-to-$21.0 <br />million. It should be noted that this estimate is conservative, due to the <br />potential revenue from the new Gold Card group membership program. Gold Card <br />members pay a higher annual fee but not the 5% surcharge incurred by regular <br />group members. However, given its recent introduction, it will be several <br />quarters before this program's impact can be more accurately assessed. Total <br />revenues for fiscal 1987 should thus approximate $1.319-to-$1.521 billion. <br />The gross margin is projected to decline further, to 10.8%-to-11.0%. However, <br />we believe that gross profit will again increase at a rate about in line with <br />the sales gain. As in fiscal 1986, the percentages to total revenues of S,G&A <br />expense and preopening expense are expected to decrease during fiscal 1987. <br />In our estimation, Costco will report operating profit in the $23.0-to-$31.8 <br />million range in the year ending August 31, 1987, up over. 200% from our <br />estimated figure for this year. With deferred compensation remaining at <br />$50,000 and interest expense projected to approximately equal interest income, <br />pretax income in fiscal 1987 should also rise about 200% to $23.0-to-$31.8 <br />million. Assuming a 46% tax rate, net income is estimated at $12.40-to-$17.15 <br />
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