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2009_0209_Packet
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2009_0209_Packet
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�oog Market �verview (Continued) <br />According to a December 12�h article in HNN {hotelnewsnow.com), the �conomic research firm <br />e-forecasting.com, in conjunction with Smith Travel Research, announced tF�ai following a decline of <br />1.9 percent in October, the Hoiei indus�ry's Pu[se Index (HIP) feli by 3.Z perc�r�t in No�ember. HIP <br />is a composite indicatar that gauges business activity in �he U.S. hotef industry in real-time. This <br />decline brought the index ta a reading af 92.4. The index was set to equal 100 in 20D0, <br />Loofcing at HIP's six-mon�h grovv�h ra�e, which histor�cally has signaled turning points in U.S. hatel <br />business acti�ity, HIP went down by an annua[ rate of 13.5 percent �n November, further warsening <br />its decline af 9.2 percer�t in �cto�er. This compar�s to a long-term annual growt� rate of 3.2 percent, <br />the same as the 38-year average ann�al growth raie of the industry's gross domestic praduct. <br />The praba�ility af a recession in the hotel ir�dustry, which is detected ir� real-fime fram HIP wit� the <br />help af sophisticated stafiistical techni�ues, registered 99.9 percent in November, up from 95.7 per- <br />ce�fi reported in October. Historically, when ihis �ecession-warning gauge passes t�e threshald prab- <br />ability of 35 percent fo� a few months, the U.S. I�otel industry has entered a recession. As a result, <br />the odds of business expansion in the hatef industry were at the Q.1, percenf mark in No�ember, <br />becaming e�en mare dismai than Octaber's reading of 4.3 percent. <br />Presider�t-elect Qbama has taker� important s�eps aver the past year to demonstrate his support <br />for travel �y cospansoring the Travel Promotio� Act, encouraging expansion of �he Visa Wai�er <br />Program and speaking aufi on our nation's d�ier�orating air travel system, according �o Roger pow <br />from TIA. He now has an opportunity to demonsirat� his commi�ment to impro�ing the American <br />ecor�omy and winning hearts and minds aro�nd tF�e worfd by supporting lawer barriers to tra�el to <br />and within the United States, and by making impro�ements an the trave[ process a ceRtral priority <br />af his adminis�ra�ion. The change in adminis�ration and balance of pawer in the U.S. House of <br />Represe�tati�es and Senate pra�ides oppo�tunities for the travel community. <br />According to Smith Tra�e[, the indUSiry will also see mare gues�rooms closing—in large part because <br />of �he lack of capital thraugh traditional lending sources. Same pro�erties with a serious need for <br />renovation will simply naf have funding available to do so. From a historical perspective, an a�erage <br />of 15,000 guestrooms closed artnUally untif 1997. Then, for the next six years, �he average was about <br />30,004. During the period from 2004 through 2006, about 50,a00 guesirooms were clased annuafly— <br />due in large part ta natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and the rush ro conver� existing hotel <br />rooms into condominiums. The net number af room c�osings figure fell again �o about �a,Q�O in 20o7, <br />bu� in ihis enviranment we fully expect tha� numb�r to rise fia abaut 45,000 annually far 2Q08, 2009 <br />and z010. <br />-Page 9- <br />
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