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Calculating scenarios for diversion For ease of comparison and understanding, we have chosen to evaluate the impacts of three scenarios over the same baseline. Baseline: The baseline reIlects no recycling or composting. We used the state's average of 3$% waste-to-energy incineration. anal 65% landfill as the potential energy generation from Waste. We used the national averages for distance to landfill and national average landfill gas capture rates of 44%, which. are increasingly questioned as the rate is predicted to be much too high. Current Average Scenario (using 2006 data): The current average scenario uses the charts and reports from SCORE to give a snap shot of the greenhouse gas reductions achieved by participating in recycling and composting at the average Minnesota level: - 41 % recycling and 3'% composting MCCAG 2012 Goal Scenario (future): For amid-range scenario we used the State of Minnesota goals for recovery efforts. The Minnesota Climate Change Advisory Group (MCCAG), a governor appointed body of public, private, and nonprofit groups, convened in 2007 with the purpose of presenting a. climate change mitigation plan to the legislature. They looked at issues across all sectors including waste. The goals they set for waste reduction are: ~ 50% recycling and 10% can posting by 2012 60% recycling anal 1~% composti.ng 6y 2025. The middle scenario uses the 2012 goals of achieving a SO% recycling rate and 10'% composting rate. To calculate the additional diversion needed to reach these goals, start with the average scenario (what is currently being done, 41'% recycling and 3`% composting} and add tonnage based upon what is left in the garbage. It will require capturing 40% of the additional recyclab]es in the garbage to ril.eet the 50%, overall recycling goal and 50% of the compostables in the garbage to meet the 10% composting goal. Zero--Waste Scenario (maximum): The zero-waste scenario measures the impact of capturing virtually everything currently recyclable or compostable. LJsu~g the current diversion numbers and adding in all the potential recycling and composting identified through the 2000 waste composition study: Y 100% recycling and 100% composting This result is approximately an overall 8$"o diversion rate (see Total potential column in Table 5). The remaining 12% of the waste stream is currently not recyclable or compostable. In a true zero-waste model, this 12% would be source reduced or redesigned to be recyclable or compostable. Page 11