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In San Diego, starting employees at discount rntail establishments earn less than the starting salaxy quoted by Boarnet and Crane for Orange County. Whereas Boarnet and Crane identified starting wages of $�r$7 per hour, Rea & Parlcer Research has found that starting pay in San Diego i� $5.80-$6--approximately 10% less than the BoarnedCrane finc�ing, Grocery worlcers at the large chains, however, are covered by the same contract and, therefore, earn the same in S�n Diego County as they do in Orange County. Benefit pacicages available to grocery chain employees and diseount retail employees in San Diego parallel OYarr3e County closely. This 6nding adds $0.60 to the $8.62 wage and benefit gap identifiedby Bo�rnct and Crane. Ther�fore, the wage and benefit gap in San Diego Cb�,riy is estimated b� be $922 per hour per worlcer, indicating that dixount retail employeea earn wages and benefits equal to �p�v�� one-half of the amount whieh � chain worlcers earn. Using marlcet share per storc data frr � A.� �.s� and Ad�anta, it bas been estimated for San Diego that supereentecs will initial}y peneh-aie � loca! marlcet in the range of 12% on ti�e lower end, up to 23% as the initial upper bound. Beyond thia initial impact, iurther impacts � be � in the form of wage and b�nefit camp�tidon far existing maj or gxocexy chains as they �k to nayt the challenge of thia significant new competition. Impact Upon Overall Wage Levels: San Diego County has 163%of Southern California's total major grocery chain employees, or approximately 13,000 such employees. Applying the San Diego wage gap of $9.22 for the 35.5 aeerage work hours per week produces an initial nnnual di�placement impact upon wages and bsnefits of $27,000,000 � $51,000,000, depending upon the extent of the marlcet penetration {12%-23'16). � As the wnge gap closes, another $68,000,000 -$1I7,OOO,OQO per year would be lost if 40% - 60% of the $9.22 wage gap i$ cic�cd in an ctfor�t to xreet sap�rsmt� competition. Flill elosure of the wage gap would lead to another $68,000,000 -$116,OOU,OOU per year in lost wages and benefits, for tun annual total taas to the local economy of $2,2,1,000,000. The Rvw�'�n� model canbined varioua of these seenarias into a range of potential impacts, starting on the low end with a model which included the lower bovnd of direct displacement (1096 for Boarnet and Crane-12% for Rea F� Parlcer �� plus a 40% gap closure and haeing r� the hq�. end the 1rr� penetration (20% for &arr„� and Crane-23% for Rea & Parker Research) plus full closure of the gap. The $oarnedCrane economic cost range of $500 million •$1.4 billion par year for all Southern California becomes $105 million-$221 million per year for San Diego. That i� to say that the total wage impact upon grocery worlcers in major chains in the event of supercenters entering San Diego will fall somewhere between $105 million and $221 million annually. Multiplier �Efect: According tn the San Diego Association of Covernments, the regional Multiplier in San Diego varies between 1.5 and 2.5 depending upon the industry involved and the propensity for funds to lealc out of the local economy. Using the midpoint Multiplier of 2, the full e[fect of the wage losses in the grocery industry would residt in $210 mipion •$440 million of reduced economic activity in the region every year. Ramifications of a Low Wage �eonomy: Suggesting that the economy would be in a better condition were grocery worlcers to earn only one-half of what they currently earn, as is the case for discount retail �vorkera,t,i'gnores the huge adeantages of an economy � � �.4'� � �dJ ��5: ��f1d� ��'i .�r�r�r� ��r�e�r�s ,��r+��1� ��r f,�r� �+�rX� r��r��Z P{'r��r�k�d��, rr X�r� ti �i�.1�►�d�' [�'� � rr,�� r �� J� 5�.t�'�J � 2a�� #� i�L��f�'_