12-17-07 Item 1D CIP PMP Discussion

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CIP Discussion 12/13/2007 Page 2 Following initial discussions with the City Council in May 2006, Scenario 3 was modified to slow the increase in PCI from 64 to 75 over a ten (10) year period. The cost of this scenario over a 20 year time frame is $19.9 million. City staff presented a five year CIP for 2007 to 20 I I to the City Council based on this scenario, which was formally adopted at the January 29,2007, City Council meeting. At the August 2007 Work Session, the City Council requested that the proposed project in 2008, the Glenarden neighborhood, be postponed a year. Council also requested that the most recent scenario run by GoodPointe be modified to reflect an increase in the average PCI to 75 over a 15 year period, as opposed to a 10 year period. DISCUSSION Staff uses a system approach to develop a pavement management program. First, the results ICON produces based on existing PCI is evaluated to better understand the most critical areas. Then, staff reviews this information and places it into context with the City system, visually confirming ICON's recommendations in the field and adjusting projects to meet additional factors and criteria set by the City. Staff had GoodPointe run seven scenarios using the most updated data that iocludes the 2006 and 2007 projects, summarized as follows: . Scenario A: Spend $ I million per year on street improvements. . Scenario B: Spend $500,000 per year on street improvements. . Scenario C: Spend $ I million every other year on street improvements. . Scenario D: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 15 years, with no predetermined projects (without CIP.) . Scenario E: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 15 years, includiog the CIP. . Scenario F: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 10 years, with no predetermined projects (without CIP.) . Scenario G: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 10 years, including the CIP. These scenarios were run with the following assumptions: The CIP used in the scenarios is the CIP approved by the City Council in January, 2007, with the modification that the Glenarden neighborhood was postponed to 2009, and each of the following year's projects were also delayed a year. An inflation factor of three percent (3%) has been factored into the model to account for rising construction costs; and the proposed funding includes street construction only- no utility improvement costs are included in these models. As part of the budget analysis, maintenance backlog can be determined. This is defined as the cost to repair all the streets in the City in a given year. The attached table summarizes the most recent analyses, listing the annual budget, annual backlog, and average PCI through 2048. Results of Scenario A show that spending a fixed amount of $ I million a year will steadily increase the PCI and decrease the backlog until the early 2040s. At this time the PCI begins to decrease, as inflation has increased to a point where spending $ I million per year no longer sustains the City's pavement system. Scenarios Band C indicate that a spending a lesser amount or less frequent spending will result in a steadily decreasing PCI rating and a steadily increasing backlog; the average PCI will be a "poor" rating by the early 2040s.