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United`Sta.tes becomes critical In the coming decades, and the:political winds shift toward federal control of
<br />national water resources. Would it really be:surprising to. find the topic of.large-scale diversions.from the Great
<br />Lakes back an the table? Should we:b.e concerned,about the compacYs:abil.ity to survive the coming water crisis?.
<br />I ran these questions by two experts who were kin denough.to take my calls. Sherry Ernzler, general counsel for
<br />the.Minnesota ❑NR, did not mince. words: Yes, we. should be concerned., If water -starved states gain control in
<br />Congress; Eniler said, "AlI bets are off." By contrast, Peterjohnson=deputy director of the Conference of Great
<br />Lakes and St, Lawrence Governors:and Premiers. and principal author of the compact-professeslittle concern:
<br />Far various legal, logistical, and political reasons, he said, he believes .we. are unlikely to see.any long-distance
<br />diversions of Great Lakes water in the decades ahead. Because a compact is a birid ing contract between the
<br />participating states, johnson explained, there is reason to believe that the Supreme Court would not allow
<br />Congress to unilaterally change the terms of that contract.
<br />From a logistical standpoint, the.engineering challenges of moving large amounts. of water to, say, Arizona, would
<br />be extremelydifficuIt.to overcbme, he rioted, and the. enormous cost of building the necessary pipes and
<br />channels combined: with the operating costs would be economically infeasible under all but the most dire
<br />circ€zmstances.e3 From a political standpoint, while Congress may crave legal authority to pass laws that. undercut
<br />the purposes of the corn pact without changing the terms of the compact itself, Mr. johnson emphasized that
<br />almost every state in the union is a member of at Ieast one interstate compact; many of those compacts,
<br />especially in the. West,. involve Water. :"Atrack[hg the regime of compacts between states regarding water,"Mr.
<br />john.sori warned, "is fraught with not.justsetting up Iegal challenges, but would also have political significance. If
<br />somebody starts.passin.g Iaws.that undermine the purposes:of the Great Lakes Compact, that could in turn
<br />become a justification for reclpracity, and.l think it's safe.to say nobody wants that.
<br />"And this is all without even bringing in the international component, where. Canada and the Canadian Provinces
<br />that share the. Great Lakin -St. Lawrence Basin may also have some objections, both political and legal, that could
<br />be:raised"
<br />I find Mr. Johnson's response reassuring; but I do.share Ms. Enzler's concern. it's hard to shake the sense that if
<br />the irnpacts of.climate change and population growth upon freshwater resources are as predicted {or greater} in
<br />the coming decades,. there will be renewed pressureto overcome the politicai,.fega1, and logistical hurdles,
<br />daunting as they may be, and divert Great Lakes water outside the basin. Moreover, if the water crisis in other
<br />states becomes severe enough, the question..may change from whether we can prohibit the diversion.of Great
<br />Lakes. water outside the Basin to whether we should prohibit it, when.our fellow citizens are in. need.
<br />Fortunately, it has. yet to. -be determined whether these potential outcomes are, as Ebenezer Scrooge famously
<br />asked, "shadows of the things that will be' or :only "shadows of things that may be." 64 The .Earth's Future report
<br />outlines not only the projected shortages in the U.S. freshwater supplybut also the steps that might be taken to
<br />preserve freshwater resources for future:generations. Many of these steps,::as noted previously, are deeply
<br />problernatic, such as:extensive groundwater mining. Some, however, show promise. For example, the report
<br />indicates that improvements. in agricultural irrigation.efFciency should be a.tigh priority'' and that shifting,so.me
<br />water use from .agriculturaI to other sectors, where possible, will likely be necessary as well.bs
<br />Talcfng these and other steps now will be critical to the.. ultimate protection of the Great Lakes. They, along with
<br />the existing protections provided by the compact, can help ensure that a Chairman .Mao-lnspired north-ta-south
<br />diversion.of.Great Lakes water will not.:be happening anytime soon.
<br />Water diversion outsidethe Great Lakes Basin
<br />It is worth e m phasizing: that because the compact only applies to diversions of water from the Great Lakes Basin,
<br />it provides no protection against d.iversions.of water located outside the basin. The demand for this type of
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