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A GUIDE TO RETAIL IMPACT STUDIES 3.consultant The conducts the study. There are typically four phases in analyzing the economic and fiscal impact of a proposed retail development: First, in order to evaluate the impact a new large-scale retailer will have on the local and regional economy and community, that new retailer itself must be carefully analyzed. Large discount stores offer tens of thousands of individual products across multiple lines of goods, which may or may not overlap with the inventory of existing local and regional businesses and may or may not add diversity in public choice. The analyst must identify the lines of goods to be offered by the new retailer, forecast the sales for each line of goods, and estimate the jobs and wages associated with the forecast sales. Second, the consultant must gain a thorough understanding of the existing retail activity and conditions within the region. This includes determining the extent of the retail market area, quantifying both the demand for and actual retail sales in the market area by line of goods, quantifying retail employment in the area, and analyzing other aspects of retail activity in the region. Third, the analyst must examine how the existing retail economy will likely respond to the new retail store. The primary consideration here is just how much of the retailer's projected sales will be drawn from existing merchants and how much will be new to the locality. Analysts often develop this forecast into probable ranges, reflecting the medium, or most probable, scenario, as well as the high and low end of the forecast. Finally, the analyst projects the impact on retail employment, wages, tax revenue, municipal costs, and other factors. Just as a traffic analysis cannot determine the exact number of car trips a development will generate, forecasting economic impacts is not an exact science. However, like a traffic analysis, an economic impact analysis can forecast impacts that are reasonably close to the mark and sufficiently reliable to serve as a basis for evaluating the overall impact of a retail development proposal. 4. municipal officials After the study is submitted to the town, then hold a public hearing, citizensdeveloperneighboring municipalities providing an opportunity for , the ,, and others to offer testimony on the findings of the study and the impact of the proposed development. 5. Municipal officials review the study and any data and testimony submitted by the applicant and others, and make a determination as to whether the development meets the standard set forth in the policy. 4