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<br /> FISCAL ANALYSIS
<br /> potential Total
<br /> 15 Yr. R-Q-W Improve R-Q-W
<br /> Net TIF (In Mill) Costs Costs Improve Costs
<br />PH 1 $ 595,275 3.5-4.0 $2,173,320 $1,873,416 $ 4,046,736
<br />PH 2 827,445 5.0-5.5 2,868,818 1,124,530 3,993,348
<br />PH 3 1,224,032 7.7-8.2 8,885,720 1,318,558 10,204,278
<br />PH 4 661,500 4.0-4.5 6,597,250 458,200 7,055,450
<br /> $3,308,252 20.2-22.2 $20,525,108 $4,774,704 $25,299,812
<br />
<br />Our office's evaluation indicates that there are several problems
<br />with this analysis. The net TIF values assume that development
<br />in each phase will occur all at one time. The City and its
<br />representatives, have stated however that development would be
<br />occurring throughout this area as the market demand dictates.
<br />There is not to be any established time frames for the
<br />redevelopment in these phases. This being the case, there is no
<br />guarantee of the ability to capture the suggested TIF at one
<br />time. Allowing development to occur at will, cannot be a basis
<br />upon which to speculate revenue.
<br />
<br />Apparently the City is assuming that it will 'sell one bond for
<br />each phase. This is not a realistic approach to the bonding
<br />issue, due to the fact that there is no evidence to support the
<br />idea that these phases of development will occur as planned.
<br />There is no way of knowing that the phased development will
<br />follow an orderly pattern, in a timely fashion, or that the new
<br />development will be of a high enough quality to support the TIF.
<br />
<br />i
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<br />The right-of-way acquisition and improvement costs are
<br />substantial for each development phase. These costs, however, do
<br />not represent a good indication of the total expense of the
<br />redevelopment. From information provided, these figures do not
<br />include utility improvements, relocation costs, and legal fees to
<br />mention a few. If the phases do not develop as planned, and
<br />there is strong reason to believe that the phases will not, the
<br />bond and TIF money will not cover the two costs represented in
<br />the table, not to mention those not figured into the entire cost
<br />of redeveloping this area.
<br />
<br />The City's analysis has also assumed the designation of a
<br />redevelopment as compared to an economic development TIF project
<br />classification. To qualify for a redevelopment designation,
<br />which allows for longer term financing, specific criteria must be
<br />met. These criteria are: #t7/'5f' C.N~e
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