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Projected Absorption and Marketing Considerations - .-., <;, ...., ~ -~t (i\; ,- \ D\"tr~...t ~. r~""~~ S\ot{ ~ r'; \ C...). '__ U -> ("" ,.-...}.-. v. t--t",J..'- AbsOI:ption Period Based on demographic trends, the current and projected supply of senior housing in the study area and on the suggested housing concept with a 100 unit building, we , project an absorption period of between 13 and 17 months from the date of initial occupancy. We believe that between 15 and 20 percent of the units will be pre- leased and that the rem~ininf units will lease at a pace of 5 to 6 per month. The absorption projection assumes an aggressive marketing campaign by a professional senior housing marketing firm that begins at the time of groundbreaking. This absorption projection also assumes that the building will come on-line in late winter or spring, taking advantage of the peak leasing season. A project the comes on line in late fall will experience a somewhat longer absorption period. Finally, we have not included the supplementary demand potential from the constituency groups of North- western College in OUI projection. A strong response from alumni and retired staff could shorten the lease-up period by as much as six months. Market Segments The marketing campaign should be organized to appeal to three market segments. The first is study area seniors, age 70 or older, who no longer want the responsibility of home maintenance and would like aD apartment building that is age restricted. Currently, there are virtually no vacant market rate senior housing units in the study area for this population. This is the largest single market segment for the porposed facility. The second group are the children of seniors who live outside of the area but who may be considering a move to be near their children or to return to the community after moving out of the region after retirement. This is the most difficult group to reach, but generalized advertising as well as presentations to church groups will help spread the word to younger residents looking for housing for their parents. The last group are those persons who have some affiliation with Northwestern Col- lege, retired alumni and staff. Since all of the older alumni of the college do not have an association with the current campus location (having attended at the old downtown Minneapolis campus), interest in the project primarily because of the col- lege affiliation may be limited. Nevertheless, those alumni who are already consider- ing retirement housing in tbe Twin Cities will be prime candidates. We have as- sumed that this market segment will be small, and thus have not factored this seg- ment into our absorption calculations. Marketing Program We recommend that a professional marketing firm with experience in senior housing be used to develop a marketing plan and have responsibility for leasing the units until stabilized occupancy of at least 95 percent is reached. OUr experience has been that organizations with limited experience in this field often have difficulty leasing units within a reasonable time frame. There are several such firms in the Twin Cities area ~,